If our two systems are initially prepared separately with energies U1 and U2 other than the most probable, what will happen when we bring them into contact so that U can flow between them? The correct answer is, of course, ``Everything that possibly can happen.'' But there is a bigger variety of possibilities for certain gross distributions of energy than for others, and this makes those gross distributions more likely than others. The overall entropy is thus a measure of this likelihood. It seems inevitable that one will eventually feel compelled to anthropomorphize this behaviour and express it as follows:15.13
All random systems ``like'' variety and will ``seek'' arrangements that maximize it.
In any case, the tendency of energy to flow from one system
to the other will not be governed by equalization
of either energy or entropy themselves, but by equalization
of the rate of change of entropy with energy,
.
To see why,
suppose (for now) that more energy always gives more entropy.
Then suppose that the entropy
of system
depends only weakly on its energy U1,
while the entropy
of system
depends strongly on its energy U2.
In mathematical terms, this reads
The converse also holds, so we can combine this idea with our previous statements about the system's ``preference'' for higher entropy and make the following claim:
Energy U will flow spontaneously from a system with smaller to a system with larger .
If the rate of increase of entropy with energy is the same for and , then the combined system will be ``happy,'' the energy will stay where it is (on average) and a state of ``thermal equilibrium'' will prevail.